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The Digest:

Rauf Aregbesola, National Secretary of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), has argued that the 2023 presidential election results in Lagos demonstrate that control of state governments does not guarantee electoral victory. Speaking at the launch of a book in Abuja, the former Osun State governor cited the fact that President Bola Tinubu lost his home state, ward, and local government despite the APC's control of Lagos. Aregbesola, who recently defected from the APC, used the example to counter the narrative that defecting governors automatically deliver votes, pointing to the APC's low vote share in the Southeast as further evidence that "governors do not win elections, the people do."

Key Points:
  • The analysis directly challenges a prevailing political assumption in Nigeria that a governor's defection transfers their state's voting bloc to a new party.
  • It uses empirical data from the last election (Tinubu's loss in Lagos, APC's 5.8% in the Southeast) to argue for the enduring power of voter choice over elite political maneuvering.
  • The comments serve as a critique of the current wave of defections to the ruling APC, framing them as more about personal political survival than wielding real electoral influence.
  • Aregbesola positions his new party, the ADC, as focusing on the fundamental issue of electoral integrity rather than the "worrisome" trend of defections.
  • The statement is a call to action for the electoral commission, emphasizing that free and fair elections, not elite defections, are the true determinant of outcomes.
Aregbesola's intervention reframes the political debate ahead of 2027, shifting focus from elite defections to the sovereignty of the voter and the necessity of credible elections.

Sources: The Cable, Daily Post