Nigerias budget (1).webp
OPEC has reported Nigeria’s crude oil output at 1.544 million barrels per day (bpd) for May 2025, well below the 2.06 million bpd benchmark set in the federal budget. Coupled with global oil prices hovering at $73 per barrel, $2 short of Nigeria’s $75 projection, this raises fresh doubts about the viability of the N54.99 trillion 2025 budget.
  • May oil output: 1.544m bpd (OPEC data), up slightly from April’s 1.522m
  • 2025 budget target: 2.06m bpd at $75 per barrel
  • Current oil price: $73—$2 below the budget assumption
  • Budget size: ₦54.99 trillion, with exchange rate benchmark at ₦1,500/$
Nigeria’s revenue outlook for 2025 is under threat as actual crude production lags far behind budget expectations. While the output increased marginally, the gap remains wide. With oil still the backbone of public finance, even small price and volume mismatches can lead to borrowing, spending cuts, or inflationary pressure. Unless output rises or prices rebound, fiscal stress may intensify.