The Digest:
Billionaire businessman Aliko Dangote has predicted that the naira will strengthen to ₦1,100 per dollar in 2026, citing the impact of government policies and reduced import dependency. Speaking at the launch of the national industrial policy 2025, Dangote said: "Today, the dollar is ₦1,340. Mr. Vice-President, I can assure you with what I know, blocking all this importation and co, naira this year will be as low as ₦1,100 if we are lucky." He noted that manufacturers are "very very happy" with current policy outcomes. The naira has recently appreciated to ₦1,335.95 at the official market and ₦1,380 at the parallel market. Dangote acknowledged a "catch-22 situation" where a stronger naira reduces government revenue but benefits consumers in an import-dependent economy. His forecast follows a similar prediction by Femi Otedola that the naira would trade below ₦1,000/$ before year-end.
Key Points:
- A stronger naira to ₦1,100 would significantly reduce import costs and ease inflation.
- It reflects growing confidence that local refining and import substitution are working.
- Consumers and manufacturers stand to benefit, while government revenue may face pressure.
- This signals the transformative potential of the Dangote Refinery on forex dynamics.
- The timing, with recent naira appreciation, adds credibility to the forecast.
Dangote's ₦1,100 per dollar forecast hinges on sustained reduction in import dependency, particularly through local refining and manufacturing.
Sources: The Cable, National Industrial Policy Launch
