The Digest:
The crude supply deal between Dangote Petroleum Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited is facing significant challenges, with the refinery receiving only 29.21 million barrels of crude between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, just 26.9% of its required 108.74 million barrels. The shortfall of approximately 79.53 million barrels, valued at an estimated $5.40 billion at average market prices, has forced the $20 billion Lekki-based refinery to rely more on imported crude. The development highlights ongoing tensions between local refining ambitions and continued crude exports.
Key Points:
- The supply gap represents nearly three-quarters of the refinery's crude needs, severely limiting its operational capacity.
- Nigeria exported an estimated 306.7 million barrels of crude between January and October 2025, 69% of total production, while local refiners struggled for feedstock.
- The naira-for-crude deal, designed to ease FX pressure and stabilize the local currency, has been undermined by persistent supply shortfalls.
- Dangote refinery has repeatedly lamented that local crude producers are refusing to supply, forcing it to source through international traders at premium prices.
- Fuel marketers warn that without adequate crude supply to local refiners, petrol prices could have surged to N2,000 per litre.
As the Dangote refinery struggles to secure enough local crude, the shortfall exposes the fragility of Nigeria's domestic refining ambitions and the tension between export obligations and local supply commitments.
Sources: The Punch
