The Digest:
According to Premium Times and Bloomberg reports, the IMF has advised Nigeria to scale down its 2025 budget to match oil realities. The warning reflects gathering shadows behind fiscal optimism.
Key Points
- IMF projects oil price at $68–$69, below Nigeria’s $75 budget assumption
- Nigeria's budget also assumes 2 million barrels/day production
- Fiscal deficit may widen from 4.1% to 4.7% of GDP without changes
- The 2025 economic growth forecast is 3.4%, moderating to 3.2% in 2026
- IMF supports preserving critical spending and scaling cash transfers
- Fuel subsidy savings now uncertain, risking extra cuts in 2025
- IMF calls for neutral fiscal stance focused on investment
Nigeria faces a test of realism: fiscal adjustments today may prevent harsher measures tomorrow. A mirror has been raised to our economic assumptions.
Shadows behind fiscal optimism
Sources
Premium Times, Bloomberg, IMF
