The Digest:
Nigeria’s oil production fell for another consecutive month in December, dipping below its OPEC quota and budget benchmark, a persistent decline that underscores the structural and security challenges weighing on the nation’s primary revenue source.
Key Points:
- Nigeria’s oil output fell to 1.544 million barrels per day in December 2025, an 8.3% year-on-year decline.
- Production also dropped marginally from 1.599 million bpd recorded in November 2025.
- The total includes 122,385 bpd of condensate, which OPEC excludes from its quota.
- Nigeria missed its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd and its 2025 budget target of 2.06 million bpd.
- OPEC’s own report showed a monthly drop to 1.422 million bpd, based on direct communication.
- Experts cite insecurity, limited investment, and policy uncertainty as key drivers of the decline.
- Governance gaps and delayed implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act are seen as major constraints.
Sources: NUPRC, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Vanguard
