The Digest:
Nigeria's crude oil production increased marginally to 1.436 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, up from 1.401 million bpd in October. However, the nation failed to meet its OPEC production quota for the fourth consecutive month, last achieving the target in July 2025.
Key Points:
- The November output of 1.436 million bpd remains below Nigeria's OPEC-assigned production quota.
- The Q3 2025 average of 1.444 million bpd showed a decline from both Q2 (1.481 million bpd) and Q1 (1.468 million bpd).
- The consistent shortfall continues to pressure foreign exchange earnings, as oil remains the country's primary revenue source.
- OPEC+ projections indicate a need to produce 43 million bpd in 2026 to balance the global market, countering industry expectations of a supply surplus.
- Concurrently, domestic petrol consumption fell to 52.9 million litres per day in November, down from 56.74 million in October.
- The gradual production uptick suggests a fragile recovery, contingent on addressing persistent security and infrastructure bottlenecks.
- Upcoming refinery projects and upstream investments could strengthen Nigeria's position in 2026 if operational challenges are resolved.
Sources: Business Day, Nairametrics
