Key points:
Official CBN Rate: ₦1,349.50 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,443.68 / USD
Drivers: Stronger foreign exchange inflows and improved investor confidence; Higher oil export earnings boosting external reserves; Tight monetary policy (MPR at 27%) moderating speculative demand; Anticipation ahead of the upcoming MPC meeting (Feb 23-24).
Top Tools: CBN Forex Portal, Aboki Fx
The Naira achieved a significant milestone on Tuesday, strengthening below the ₦1,350/$ threshold for the first time since May 2024, closing at ₦1,349.50/$ in the official market. This historic appreciation is driven by improved liquidity, stronger oil earnings, and effective monetary policy, though a gap with the parallel market persists.
FAQ
- What's the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The premium stands at approximately ₦94.18. While the official market has broken through a key resistance level, the parallel market showed slight weakness, indicating that demand pressures remain more pronounced in the informal segment despite overall improving market conditions.
- Will the naira strengthen further? The outlook is cautiously optimistic. The breakthrough below ₦1,350/$ is a strong positive signal. Attention now turns to the February 23-24 MPC meeting, where policy decisions on interest rates will influence the currency's trajectory. Sustained strength will depend on maintaining improved inflows and tight monetary conditions.
- How do oil prices affect rates? Higher oil export earnings are directly cited as a key factor boosting external reserves and dollar supply. This fundamental driver is enabling the CBN to build buffers, manage volatility, and support the naira's appreciation. The current level of oil revenue is a cornerstone of the improved liquidity conditions analysts credit for this historic gain.
