
Key points:
Official CBN (NFEM) Rate: ₦1,422.75 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,465 - ₦1,475 / USD (range)
Drivers: Consistent Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) interventions; Improved banking system liquidity; Cooling inflation and rising foreign exchange reserves providing a stability buffer.
Top Tools: CBN Forex Portal, Aboki Fx
The Naira maintained a steady position on Friday, trading within a narrow band at the official market. The arbitrage gap with the parallel market has narrowed significantly, reflecting improved liquidity and easier access to forex through official channels for many businesses.
FAQ
- What's the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The premium has narrowed to a range of approximately ₦42 to ₦52. This reduced gap is a positive indicator of improving market convergence, attributed to better official liquidity and moderated demand in the parallel sector.
- Will the naira strengthen further? The immediate outlook is for continued stability and consolidation around current levels. The CBN's consistent defense, backed by rising reserves, is creating a supportive environment. Further significant strengthening would require sustained increases in autonomous dollar inflows.
- How do oil prices affect rates? Stable oil revenue is crucial for maintaining the external reserves that empower the CBN's market interventions. The current period of Naira stability is directly supported by this buffer. However, traders remain cautious of future sovereign debt obligations that could influence dollar demand independently of oil prices.