Key points:
Official CBN Rate: ₦1,417.95 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,490 / USD
Drivers: Intense demand for foreign exchange across all market segments; Widening official-parallel market gap hitting an 11-month high of N73; Modest weekly improvement in external reserves to $45.8 billion.
Top Tools: Aboki Fx, Nairametrics, CBN Forex
The Naira experienced divergent pressures this week: while it appreciated slightly in the official market, it weakened significantly in the parallel market, pushing the gap between the two to its widest point since February 2025. This highlights persistent market stress despite improving external buffers.
FAQ
- What’s the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The gap has widened sharply to approximately N73, marking an 11-month high. This significant spread indicates heightened arbitrage opportunities and strong unmet demand in the unofficial market.
- Will the naira strengthen soon? The widening gap is a strong indicator of ongoing market pressure. While rising reserves provide a cushion, a sustained reversal of the current trend would require a substantial increase in FX supply or a successful CBN intervention to directly narrow the spread.
- How do oil prices affect rates? Inflows from oil exports are contributing to the gradual reserve build-up ($45.6bn to $45.8bn). However, the current market dynamics show that this increased buffer has not yet translated into sufficient liquidity to meet demand, as evidenced by the sharply widening parallel market gap.
