Key points:
Official CBN (NFEM) Rate: ₦1,357.11 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,410 - ₦1,415 / USD (range)
Gross external reserves at a 13-year high of $50.03 billion, providing substantial "firepower" to manage volatility; Geopolitical tensions driving Brent crude above $100/barrel; Dangote Refinery operating at 700,000 barrels per day, reducing FX demand for fuel imports; CBN caution on "imported inflation" despite high oil earnings.
Top Tools: CBN Forex Portal, Aboki Fx
The Naira maintained steady performance on Thursday, trading at ₦1,357.11/$ in the official market. This stability is underpinned by a landmark 13-year high in external reserves ($50.03 billion) and reduced fuel import FX demand as the Dangote Refinery ramps up production to 700,000 barrels per day.
FAQ
- What's the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The premium remains in a range of approximately ₦53-₦58. This persistent gap reflects ongoing demand from small-scale importers and individuals funding school fees and travel, despite significant narrowing since mid-2025 reforms.
- Will the naira strengthen further? The medium-term outlook is positive, supported by three key factors: record-high reserves providing intervention capacity, reduced FX demand for fuel imports due to Dangote Refinery's expanded operations, and high oil prices boosting dollar inflows. However, the CBN remains cautious about "imported inflation" from energy costs, which could complicate the inflation outlook.
- How do oil prices affect rates? The current dynamics present a classic double-edged sword: Brent crude above $100/barrel boosts dollar inflows and supports reserves, but also threatens to increase energy and transportation costs, potentially pressuring the recently moderated headline inflation rate of 15.06%. The CBN's reference to "imported inflation" highlights this tension between external inflows and domestic price stability.
