Key points:
Official CBN (NFEM) Rate: ₦1,430.84 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,495 / USD
Drivers: New Year trading momentum; Presidential assurance of strong foreign reserves ($45.4 billion) acting as a buffer against external shocks; Market response to year-end position adjustments.
Top Tools: CBN Fx, Aboki Fx
The Naira opened the 2026 trading year with appreciation at the official market on Friday, January 2, gaining over ₦4 to close at ₦1,430.84/$1. President Tinubu's New Year message highlighting robust foreign reserves provided fundamental support, though the parallel market saw opposing pressure.
FAQ
- What's the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The divergence widened significantly to approximately ₦64.16. This highlights a stark contrast between the positive momentum in the official, regulated market and the persistent high demand pressures in the unofficial parallel market as the new year begins.
- Will the naira strengthen further? The strong official market opening and presidential commitment to reserve strength are positive signals for the formal exchange rate. However, the wide and growing gap with the black market suggests underlying dollar scarcity and high demand remain unresolved challenges that could limit broader strengthening.
- How do oil prices affect rates? Foreign reserves, largely backed by oil earnings, are the bedrock of the currency's defense. The President's specific reference to the $45.4 billion reserves underscores their critical role. Current official market gains can be seen as a direct benefit of this accumulated buffer, which provides the CBN with greater capacity to manage the rate.
