
Key points:
Official CBN (NAFEX) Rate: ₦1,464.49 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,485 / USD
Drivers: High seasonal foreign exchange demand; Reduced supply from key sources (exporters, foreign portfolio investors, non-bank corporates); CBN intervention sales that are present but insufficient to meet market pressure.
Top Tools: CBN Forex Portal, Aboki FX
The Naira suffered sharp declines in both the official and parallel markets on Friday, December 20, 2025, crashing by over ₦6 at NAFEX and falling by ₦10 on the black market. The pressure stems from heightened seasonal demand and inadequate dollar inflows, despite continued CBN interventions.
FAQ
- What's the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The gap widened to approximately ₦20.51 on Friday, reflecting intensified pressure in the unofficial market as demand outstrips available supply.
- Will the naira strengthen soon? Significant near-term strengthening is unlikely given the current supply-demand imbalance. Stability will depend on a material increase in dollar inflows from expected sources like oil sales or diaspora remittances, or a more aggressive CBN supply intervention.
- How do oil prices affect rates? Oil prices are a foundational factor for Nigeria's external reserves. The 2025 budget, based on a $64.85/barrel oil price and ₦1,400/$1 exchange rate projection, shows the government's long-term expectations. However, the current sharp depreciation is a short-term liquidity crisis, indicating that even with higher reserves, immediate market supply is failing to meet peak seasonal demand.