Key points:
Official CBN (NAFEX) Rate: ₦1,349.24 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,365 / USD
Drivers: Declining weekly FX inflows; BDC operators yet to commence FX purchases from banks two weeks after CBN policy approval; No CBN inflows into the market during the past week.
Top Tools: CBN Forex Portal, Aboki Fx
The Naira commenced the trading week on a bearish note, depreciating across all official market segments. This pressure stems from reduced weekly inflows and the continued delay in BDC operators accessing dollars from commercial banks—a policy intended to ease parallel market pressure that has yet to materialize.
FAQ
- What's the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The premium narrowed to approximately ₦15.76. Interestingly, while the official rate weakened, the parallel market appreciated by ₦5, resulting in a reduced spread that now stands at its narrowest level in recent weeks.
- Will the naira strengthen further? The immediate outlook is uncertain. While external reserves remain strong at $48.77 billion, providing the CBN with significant firepower, the lack of recent CBN inflows and the delay in BDC access to banks are creating short-term pressure. Market stability will likely depend on the resolution of these implementation challenges.
- How do oil prices affect rates? The robust external reserve position of $48.77 billion, a key defense mechanism for the naira, is fundamentally supported by oil revenues. This substantial buffer gives the CBN the capacity to intervene if needed. The current pressure appears more related to market mechanics (delayed BDC implementation) rather than a depletion of the underlying reserve strength.
