Key points:
Official CBN Rate: ₦1,421.90 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,491 / USD
Drivers: Persistent domestic foreign exchange supply constraints; Structural challenges in Nigeria's FX market, including limited dollar inflows; Weak oil export receipts and subdued foreign portfolio investment.
Top Tools: CBN Official Website, Aboki FX
The Naira closed the trading week weaker, ending at ₦1,421.90/$1. This decline occurred despite a softer U.S. dollar globally, highlighting how severe domestic supply shortages and structural market distortions are outweighing supportive external conditions and continuing to pressure the local currency.
FAQ
- What's the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The premium widened to approximately N69.10, as the parallel market weakened further. This expanding gap illustrates how domestic supply-demand imbalances can cause the Naira to diverge from global currency trends, creating a wider spread between official and unofficial rates.
- Will the naira strengthen soon? Near-term strength is unlikely without a significant improvement in dollar supply. While external reserves ($45.9bn) and a positive IMF growth forecast (4.4% for 2026) provide a foundation, expert analysis indicates that restrictions on currency access and limited inflows mean the Naira may not benefit from global dollar weakness until these core liquidity issues are resolved.
- How do oil prices affect rates? Weaker oil export receipts are cited as a direct cause of the constrained FX supply. This underscores that Nigeria's ability to generate dollars through its primary export is fundamental. The current market performance shows that even with global factors that should be supportive, a shortfall in earnings from oil can prevent the currency from strengthening.
