Key points:
Official CBN (NFEM) Rate: ₦1,384.39 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,405 - ₦1,415 / USD (range)
Drivers: Surge in FX inflows, up 45% month-on-month to $4.4 billion in February; High-yield "carry trade" investments attracting offshore capital; CBN's new IMTO directive routing diaspora remittances through designated naira settlement accounts; Reserves at $49.60 billion after six consecutive sessions of decline.
Top Tools: CBN Forex Portal, Aboki FX
The Naira showed mixed performance on Thursday, opening at ₦1,385.46/$ before appreciating slightly to ₦1,384.39/$. This stability comes despite six consecutive sessions of reserve declines, supported by a 45% surge in FX inflows to $4.4 billion, driven by high-yield offshore investments and improved remittance transparency.
- What's the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The premium stands at approximately ₦31, slightly widened from the ₦27 gap earlier in the week. However, this remains significantly narrower than the triple-digit spreads of previous years, reflecting continued progress in market unification reforms.
- Will the naira strengthen further? Traders expect the Naira to trade within the ₦1,380-₦1,420 range for the remainder of the week. While the sixth consecutive session of reserve declines presents a challenge, the underlying quality of buffers, including gold holdings, increased to $3.5 billion, which suggests a more resilient position than headline figures indicate.
- How do oil prices affect rates? The current reserve decline is largely attributed to sustained outflows linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have affected global risk appetite. However, the 45% surge in FX inflows demonstrates that non-oil sources, particularly offshore investment and remittances, are providing substantial support that offsets some of these pressures.
