Key points:
Official CBN Rate: ₦1,391 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,453 / USD
Drivers: Improved liquidity and stabilized demand-supply dynamics in the FX market; A significant rise in Nigeria's external reserves to $46.18 billion; Reforms improving market efficiency and transparency.
Top Tools: CBN Official Website, Aboki Fx
The Naira closed the week with a strong week-on-week gain, appreciating from ₦1,421.9/$1 to ₦1,391/$1 in the official market. This rally was supported by rising external reserves and improved market alignment, as evidenced by the parallel market gap narrowing sharply from ₦105 to ₦62.
FAQ
- What's the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The premium narrowed significantly to ₦62, down from a 12-month high of ₦105 the previous day. This rapid contraction indicates a major reduction in speculative pressure and improved confidence, suggesting the recent official market gains are fostering greater convergence.
- Will the naira strengthen further? The outlook is positive for sustained stability and potential further gains. The CBN forecasts external reserves to rise to $51.04 billion in 2026, which would provide a substantial buffer. Continued strength depends on maintaining the current inflows and the effectiveness of ongoing FX market reforms aimed at narrowing the premium between market segments.
- How do oil prices affect rates? The steady climb of external reserves to $46.18 billion, an eight-year high, is fundamentally supported by oil revenues and other inflows. These reserves are the critical foundation that empowers the CBN to manage volatility and implement the reforms that are currently driving both the appreciation and the narrowing of the market gap, showcasing a direct link between reserve health and exchange rate stability.
