Key points:
Official CBN (NFEM) Rate: ₦1,359 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,450 / USD
Drivers: Sustained appreciation trend in the official market; Third consecutive day of gains in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM).
Top Tools: CBN Forex Portal, Aboki Fx
The Naira recorded its third consecutive day of appreciation, strengthening significantly in the official market to ₦1,359/$1 and gaining in the parallel market to ₦1,450/$1. However, the faster pace of gains in the official window caused the gap between the two markets to widen to ₦91.
- What's the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The premium widened to ₦91, up from ₦88 the previous day. This increase occurred because the Naira appreciated by ₦8 in the official market while gaining only ₦5 in the parallel market, leading to a larger spread.
- Will the naira strengthen further? The three-day appreciating trend in the official market is a strong positive signal. However, the widening gap suggests that while the formal sector is responding robustly to policy or supply improvements, the parallel market is strengthening at a slower pace, which may indicate persistent underlying demand pressures or different liquidity conditions in the informal sector.
- How do oil prices affect rates? While not directly mentioned, a steady increase in foreign exchange earnings, often linked to stable or rising oil production and prices, is a typical source of the improved dollar supply that can fuel sustained appreciation in the official market. The official market's faster and larger gains may reflect these improved macroeconomic inflows, which may take more time to fully impact the parallel market.
