
Key points:
Official CBN (NFEM) Rate: ₦1,441.85 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,455 - ₦1,465 / USD (range)
Drivers: Resumption of post-festive season business activity; Heightened demand from manufacturers and importers for Q1 restocking; Ongoing efforts for exchange rate convergence through monetary policy.
Top Tools: FMDQ for NFEM Data, CBN Fx, Aboki Fx
The Naira showed slight recovery in the first full week of 2026, but continues to trade under pressure. The slight narrowing of the gap between official and parallel market rates reflects ongoing policy efforts, even as renewed business demand for dollars applies upward pressure.
FAQ
- What's the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The premium has narrowed slightly to a range of approximately ₦13 to ₦23, indicating some progress towards the government's goal of market convergence, though a clear spread persists.
- Will the naira strengthen further? Near-term pressure from strong import and manufacturing demand is likely to continue. Further strengthening would require a significant boost in autonomous dollar supply or a more substantial CBN intervention to meet this resurgent demand.
- How do oil prices affect rates? As the primary source of foreign reserves, stable oil revenue underpins the CBN's capacity for market intervention. The current market focus, however, is on the immediate balance between rising post-holiday commercial demand and the available liquidity supplied to the market.