L
LequteMan
Guest
Nigeria - The Nigerian economy is expected to undergo some changes as the country concludes its general elections and approaches a transition of government.
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari had defeated President Goodluck Jonathan in the March 28 polls with over two million votes.
Afrinvest, expecting the Buhari-led administration to have a relatively better, if not stellar performance in rule of law and corruption eradication, has listed 5 changes one could expect to Nigeria's economy during the early days of the administration:
1. The revenue base of the Nigerian economy is expected to remain weak on lower crude oil prices. Our bear case sees oil price trading below US$60.00 in the near to medium term.
2. On the back of a successful and peaceful transition in government, the exchange rate is expected to stabilize at an average of N200.00/US$1.00 at the interbank market as electioneering wraps up.
3. The depleting rate of the Nigerian external reserves (currently at US$29.8bn and dipped 13.6% YTD) may taper as foreign portfolio is expected to increase in the near future. The eventual stop of the revenue leakages in the Oil & Gas space before the end of the year would increase the accretion of the external reserves.
4. The lag effect of the depreciation/ devaluation of the Naira will continue to take its toll on the Nigerian's headline inflation rate. Average inflation rate for 2015 will be 9.5%.
5. Nigeria’s GDP will still grow at 5.0% for 2015 despite a challenging Q1 & Q2 as a result of elections activities that staled policy implementation.
#Nigeria #Afrinvest #Buhari #Jonathan
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari had defeated President Goodluck Jonathan in the March 28 polls with over two million votes.
Afrinvest, expecting the Buhari-led administration to have a relatively better, if not stellar performance in rule of law and corruption eradication, has listed 5 changes one could expect to Nigeria's economy during the early days of the administration:
1. The revenue base of the Nigerian economy is expected to remain weak on lower crude oil prices. Our bear case sees oil price trading below US$60.00 in the near to medium term.
2. On the back of a successful and peaceful transition in government, the exchange rate is expected to stabilize at an average of N200.00/US$1.00 at the interbank market as electioneering wraps up.
3. The depleting rate of the Nigerian external reserves (currently at US$29.8bn and dipped 13.6% YTD) may taper as foreign portfolio is expected to increase in the near future. The eventual stop of the revenue leakages in the Oil & Gas space before the end of the year would increase the accretion of the external reserves.
4. The lag effect of the depreciation/ devaluation of the Naira will continue to take its toll on the Nigerian's headline inflation rate. Average inflation rate for 2015 will be 9.5%.
5. Nigeria’s GDP will still grow at 5.0% for 2015 despite a challenging Q1 & Q2 as a result of elections activities that staled policy implementation.
#Nigeria #Afrinvest #Buhari #Jonathan
