P
ProfRem
Guest
On May 20th, Nigeria Bureau of Statistics reported the surprising contraction recorded in Nigeria’s economy.
The first negative year-over-year quarter for GDP in six years. This will be the start of more negative news from Nigeria.
Without a major currency reform, the weakness of Nigeria’s naira will not end anytime soon. This is bad news for inflation, which, according to my Cato Troubled Currencies Project estimate, has exploded to an annual rate of 58.6 percent. This is a long way from the official estimate.
Source: NBS
This large discrepancy between the most recent official annual inflation rate of 12.77 percent and my implied inflation rate of 58.6 percent calls again for the use of a lie coefficient. The formula for utilizing this lie coefficient is as follows: (official data) × (lie coefficient) = real estimate.
At present, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s lie coefficient is 4.6.
- Huffington Post
The first negative year-over-year quarter for GDP in six years. This will be the start of more negative news from Nigeria.
Without a major currency reform, the weakness of Nigeria’s naira will not end anytime soon. This is bad news for inflation, which, according to my Cato Troubled Currencies Project estimate, has exploded to an annual rate of 58.6 percent. This is a long way from the official estimate.
Source: NBS
This large discrepancy between the most recent official annual inflation rate of 12.77 percent and my implied inflation rate of 58.6 percent calls again for the use of a lie coefficient. The formula for utilizing this lie coefficient is as follows: (official data) × (lie coefficient) = real estimate.
At present, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s lie coefficient is 4.6.
- Huffington Post
