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LequteMan
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Analysts at Renaissance Capital believe the Naira will have to be devalued again following President Muhammadu Buhari's assumption of office.
“Post-inauguration, we think the naira – which has essentially been pegged at N199/$1 since the mid-February devaluation – will be devalued, to reflect the $4.5bn fall in FX reserves since the February devaluation.” a report from RenCap said according to PUNCH.
Noting that a weaker naira implied a build-up of inflationary pressures, they observed, “We see inflation breaching the central bank’s inflation target band of six to nine per cent and entering double-digits in Q3 2015. This rules out any prospect of monetary easing in 2015, in our view.”
They explained that the devaluation might be smaller than the market projects (1015 per cent), because authorities seemed to be focused on medium-term fundamentals, which they expect would turn in favour of the naira, primarily through a fall in import demand – particularly of agriculture products (via continued improvement in production) and fuel imports (due to 650kb/d of fuel coming onstream from Dangote’s refinery), which account for 60 per cent of forex usage.
#Nigeria #RenCap #Naira
“Post-inauguration, we think the naira – which has essentially been pegged at N199/$1 since the mid-February devaluation – will be devalued, to reflect the $4.5bn fall in FX reserves since the February devaluation.” a report from RenCap said according to PUNCH.
Noting that a weaker naira implied a build-up of inflationary pressures, they observed, “We see inflation breaching the central bank’s inflation target band of six to nine per cent and entering double-digits in Q3 2015. This rules out any prospect of monetary easing in 2015, in our view.”
They explained that the devaluation might be smaller than the market projects (1015 per cent), because authorities seemed to be focused on medium-term fundamentals, which they expect would turn in favour of the naira, primarily through a fall in import demand – particularly of agriculture products (via continued improvement in production) and fuel imports (due to 650kb/d of fuel coming onstream from Dangote’s refinery), which account for 60 per cent of forex usage.
#Nigeria #RenCap #Naira
